Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular players on the slate, popular roster construction, and potential pivots and leverage spots. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points
- The highest-owned players for tonight’s games are projected to be Santi Aldama, Donovan Mitchell, OG Anunoby, Jalen Johnson, and Jae’Sean Tatwe. Notably, CLE has a high total and a great matchup. Furthermore, with Garland and Mobley out Mitchell/Allen have both shown high ceilings with elite usage rates.
- A popular roster construction tonight will likely include 2 value players complemented by 5 mid-range players and 1 star. Ownership on the high end is concentrated on Donovan Mitchell, Luka, and Tyrese Haliburton. Based on this, Giannis, Shai Glizzy, and Trae Young are great pivots on the high end.
- Players such as Andre Drummond, Desmond Bane, and Mikal Bridges are intriguing GPP plays. Additionally, midrange plays such as Bobby Portis, Jabari Walker, and Kelly Olynyk look like potential pivot opportunities.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA DFS Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it’s not a requirement
Donovan Mitchell
Jae’Sean Tate
OG Anunoby
Jalen Johnson
Santi Aldama
NBA DFS GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
Kyle Anderson (Value)
Deni Avdija (Midrange)
Tyus Jones (Midrange)
Cade Cunningham (Stud)
Giannis (Premium)
NBA DFS Final Thoughts
The popular build tonight is going to be balanced with scarce value and a focus on midrange Knicks and Hawks with DET/MEM value. Thankfully, this makes it easy to get different tonight. The midrange has a fairly flat distribution of outcomes with ownership spiking in a few spots. Therefore, looking to pivot here makes sense with players such as Jakob Poeltl, Brook Lopez, and Alex Caruso. Additionally, you can play some of the lower owned spend ups such as Giannis, and Tyrese Haliburton. The Paydirt models are heavy on CLE/ATL as spots to target with secondary exposure to MIL/MEM. Good luck and let’s bake some bread!
Powerful tools for every sport
One site, one affordable price
Join Free by signing up below for 3 days of full access!
- Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
- Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
- Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
- Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.