Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular players on the slate, popular roster construction, and potential pivots and leverage spots. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points
- The highest-owned players for tonight’s games are projected to be Donovan Mitchell, Mikal Bridges, Isaiah Jackson (or another cheap IND player), Josh Green, and Doup Reath. Notably, Luka was a late downgrade to questionable and Dante Exum is out. Additionally, Derrick Lively is also questionable. Luka is the big news and would open up value on the Mavs.
- A popular roster construction tonight will likely include 3 value players complemented by 3 mid-range players and 2 stars. Ownership on the high end is concentrated on Donovan Mitchell, Luka (if he plays), and Tyrese Haliburton. Based on this, Embiid, Jokic, Shai Glizzy, and Trae Young are great pivots on the high end.
- Players such as Terry Rozier, Jarrett Allen, and Brandon Ingram are intriguing GPP plays. Additionally, midrange plays such as Amen Thompson, Larry Nance Jr., and Josh Richardson look like potential pivot opportunities.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA DFS Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it’s not a requirement
Donovan Mitchell
Mikal Bridges
Josh Green
Bogdan Bogdanovic
Duop Reath
NBA DFS GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
Sam Merrill (Value)
Kevin Love (Midrange)
Jarrett Allen (Stud)
Terry Rozier (Stud)
Joel Embiid (Premium)
NBA DFS Final Thoughts
The popular build tonight is going to be stars and scrubs with a focus on Donovan Mitchell and Tyrese Haliburton up top with Blazers and Mavs value. Thankfully, this makes it easy to get different tonight. Despite having one the highest game totals possibly ever, ownership on IND/ATL is modest and game-stacks are fully in play. Similarly, CLE is in a great spot where we just saw them smash and outside of Mitchell the ownership isn’t prohibitive. Additionally, you can play some of the lower owned spend ups such as Embiid and Trae Young. The Paydirt models are heavy on HOU/POR/PHI as spots to target with secondary exposure to ATL/MIA/OKC. Good luck and let’s bake some bread!
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