Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular players on the slate, popular roster construction, and potential pivots and leverage spots. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points
- The highest-owned players for tonight’s games are projected to be Jaden Hardy, Jamal Murray, Grant Williams, Tim Hardaway Jr., and Kawhi Leonard. Notably, Luka and Kyrie are out for DAL and Jokic is OUT for DEN. Additionally, Paul George was a mid-day downgrade and is OUT.
- A popular roster construction tonight will likely include 3-4 value players complemented by 1-2 mid-range players and 3 stars. Ownership on the high end is concentrated on Shai Glizzy and Wembanyama. Based on this, spending up on Sabonis, Donovan Mitchell or Devin Booker seems like a strong option on the high end.
- Players such as Nick Richards, Jabari Smith Jr., and Kevin Huerter are intriguing GPP plays. Additionally, value plays such as Jaden McDaniels, Larry Nance Jr., and Kyle Anderson look like potential pivot opportunities.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA DFS Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it’s not a requirement
Jamal Murray
Jaden Hardy
Tim Hardaway Jr.
Grant Williams
Peyton Watson
NBA DFS GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
Ayo Dosunmu (Value)
Nick Richards (Midrange)
Jabari Smith Jr. (Midrange)
Devin Booker (Stud)
James Harden (Stud)
NBA DFS Final Thoughts
The popular build tonight is going to be focused on Mavs and Nuggets value and midrange. We just saw a couple nights ago with chalk value Memphis that none of them were needed in GPP winning lineups. Similarly, DAL is just as short-handed and likely just as offensively inefficient. Moreover, Denver is potentially more interesting with Murray, AG, and MPJ being more talented than any remaining Maverick. Lastly, with no elite spend-ups tonight there is an argument to be made for a more balanced roster construction. The Paydirt models are heavy on CHI and DEN as spots to target with secondary exposure to the LAC and BKN. Good luck and let’s bake some bread!
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