Paydirt NFL DFS Play Action Week 7

Welcome to the NFL DFS Play Action here at Paydirt! This is going to be a weekly article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on the 5 highest-owned players and potential pivots. This article is used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one-off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.

Chalk DFS Plays:

• Joshua Palmer (21.40%)
• Jahmyr Gibbs (20.64%)
• Kenneth Walker III (20.63%)
• Josh Jacobs (20.49%)
• Zay Flowers (20.43%)

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top ownership lineups, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Joshua Palmer

Joshua Palmer as the highest owned player on the slate just seems like unnecessary chalk. There are four players above him with higher projections and lower ownership, and several more below him by less than 1 point of median projection. The only real argument to be made is that Drake London is the only positional pivot, so any others will have to be at the FLEX spot.

Jahmyr Gibbs

Jahmyr Gibbs is going to be one of the most popular plays with David Montgomery ruled out. However, as evidenced by the 8 potential pivot plays above him, he is far from a lock. In fact, he may end up being on of the worst chalk options on the slate. Positional pivots include James Cook, Zack Moss, and Isaiah Pacheco.

Kenneth Walker III

Kenneth Walker III looks like a strong option despite his ownership and increased price. Given his combination of median, ceiling, and Top Finish% you can play him in both cash and GPP. Furthermore, his only positional pivot projects worse, is more expensive, and has essentially the same ownership.

Josh Jacobs

Josh Jacobs is another strong chalk option. While Nacua does project better, there is concern with the return of Cooper Kupp. Bijan Robertson would be the positional pivot but he ranks fairly far below Jacobs.

Zay Flowers

Zay Flowers is in a good spot and is a fine play in a vacuum. However, once we factor in ownership Pickens and Lockett look like superior GPP plays. Additionally, Lockett is direct leverage off of Kenneth Walker who will also be highly owned this week.

DFS Play Action: Final Thoughts

Kenneth Walker and Josh Jacobs look like two of the stronger chalk options this week, while Jahmyr Gibbs and Zay Flowers look like two of the weakest. Joshua Palmer is likely a contextual play depending on the ownership of the rest of your lineup. Tyler Lockett, George Pickens, and Mike Evans are all strong pivot options at their respective price points.

Good luck and let’s bake some bread!

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