Welcome to the Second installment of my NHL Olympic Break Series. Today we are going to be talking about some of the offenses and/or lines that have performed well in the first half and perhaps flown below the radar. Then we’re going to talk about some offenses that have not been as good as their reputation.
I will Preface the article by saying that I’m going to lean towards some offenses that maybe you don’t hear about quite as much. We know that COL1, EDM1, and TB1 are great offensive lines. I’m not trying to go over stuff that folks already know.
I’m basing this analysis off the following numbers: 2.55 average expected goals against per 60 and 57 shot attempts per 60. These numbers are the average of the median numbers with the minimum ice time for a line set at 75, 100, and 125 minutes. Yeah – this is somewhat arbitrary and what exactly a big enough sample is here remains debatable. However, I think this method gives me a fair number to work with
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
*When I refer to shot attempts – I mean shot attempts for. xG refers to expected goals for. All numbers are per 60 weather I refer to it that way or not.
Excellent NHL Offensive lines
- Ottawa Senators: Yeah – we’re here again. The Sens shuffled their lines about 10 days before the break and it has made a world of difference to their offense. OTT1 (Batherson/Stuetzle/Giroux), OTT2 (Cozens/Tkachuk/Greig), and OTT3 (Pinto/Amadio/Cousins) have all posted expected expected goals/60 of 3.4 or higher in samples of 85-100 minutes each. Granted – that’s a small sample. However, it’s certainly a vast improvement over what we’ve seen from them so far this year. It is -surprisingly – Pinto/Amadio/Cousins that’s leading the way with a whopping 4.12 xG/60. Given the amount of ice time that they will likely see at home against the opponent’s first line and their likely price of 10-11K – this is clearly a line to invest in when they are at home. OTT2 is the only line posting shot attempts at a well above average rate (66 per 60), but that just tells me that they’re generating a ton of high danger chances. Brady Tkachuk’s league-leading 12.6 shots on goal per 60 tends to buoy those numbers. The only concern I have here is the fact that the minutes are pretty spread out between OTT2 and OTT1. However, they likely come in with mid-tier pricing – so that’s fine. This probably isn’t a team you’ll end up on in smaller fields very much, but they are firmly in play as a large field target.
- Chicago Blackhawks: We normally think of this team as Bedard-or-nothing. I’m not entirely sure that should be the thought process anymore. Yes – the Bedard lines have been fantastic with elite expected goals numbers of between 3.25-3.5 per 60. They are obviously always in play at lower ownership. However, the line I wanted to talk about is actually CHI3 (Donato/Dickinson/Mikheyev). I mentioned in my last article that they’ve been seeing time as a shutdown line – often leading to minutes totals in the 16-17 range. They’ve also posted a pretty solid 2.8 expected goals and 60 shot attempts per 60. Those numbers may seem unspectacular, but when you consider their price generally comes in around 9K – they seem quite a bit better. These guys are going to provide great value for the price heading into the second half.
- EDM3 (Roslovic/Savoie/Howard or Samanski): It goes without saying that EDM1 is one of the two best lines in the NHL. Same goes for Leon Draisaitl being one of the league’s best players. However, it surprised me to see how good these Roslovic/Savoie lines have been this year. 3.2 Expected goals and 69 shot attempts per 60 (both versions combined) are very solid numbers for a line that absolutely nobody mentions ever. This is going to be one of those lines that I will absolutely play when the field is on EDM1 or EDM2. I would expect them to be pretty strong leverage on NHL slates that the Oilers end up chalk – and at very cheap prices to boot. This is definitely something worth filing away going forward.
- COL2 (Nelson/Nichushkin/Landeskog, Colton, or Lehkonen): Somewhat lost in the all the praise that COL1 deserves is exactly how good COL2 has been. Nelson/Nichushkin/Landeskog have averaged an eye-popping 3.93 expected goals and 79 shot attempts per 60. Those are outrageous numbers. They’ve run out a lot of different combinations with Nelson this year – but essentially all of them have averaged a minimum of 3.4 expected goals and 68 shot attempts per 60. I’ve talked ad nauseum about how I think just not paying for very expensive skaters ever is the optimal move. I would absolutely not be afraid to run out COL2 (without MacKinnon) on slates where COL1 is very chalky. I’d argue they are probably not getting enough ownership on a nightly basis considering their mid-tier 16-17K prices.
- TOR2 (Tavares/Nylander/Maccelli): Look – I drag the Leafs all the time for being a completely incompetent organization. They make awful lineup decisions, have made awful trades, and really only excel at squandering the talent that they have. Sticking with the theme of finding ways to just not pay for expensive skaters – TOR2 has been fantastic this year. 3.44 expected goals per 60 is an exceptional number and 61 shot attempts isn’t bad either. I continue to believe that Matias Maccelli is one of the top 10 playmakers in the NHL and one of the league’s most under appreciated talents. He has really made this line the clear bright spot in an other wise dismal season for the Leafs. They have out-performed Matthews/McMann/Domi this year – and I’d expect that to continue.
Overvalued Offenses and Lines
- WPG1: Speaking of disappointing teams – WPG1 (Connor/Scheifele) is absolutely worth discussing. They have not been good this year. 2.69 xGA and 57 shot attempts per 60 are pretty much league average numbers. However, would it surprise you to know that this line wasn’t even good last year without Nikolaj Ehlers on it? Their composite numbers are within a couple shots and 0.1 expected goals per 60 – and Scheifele/Connor/Iafallo have literally NEVER been any good together. They posted a 2.4 xGA two years ago in a season where the Jets had the league’s best record. That number has been pretty consistent for three years running now. These guys were always – and continue to be – power play dependent. The Jets power play has gone from top 10 in expected goals to 21st this year. Maybe that turns around in the second half – but I kind of doubt it. I think we need to stop viewing Scheifele/Connor/Iafallo as some kind of bargain when they’re in the 16K range and realize that they’re priced appropriately for their power play upside. They’re just worthless at even strength and have been far out-performed by WPG2 (Toews/Vilardi/Perfetti).
- SJ1 (Celebrini/Smith/Graf): Macklin Celebrini is one of the best players in the NHL. He and Smith are excellent together. However, the decision to send Chernyshov back down in order to play guys like Tyler Toffoli, Collin Graf, and – god help them – Philip Kurashev on the top line. These lines are all average or worse – with Graf WAY worse – in expected goals and shot attempts per 60. Celebrini/Smith/Graf, Celebrini/Smith/Toffoli, and Celebrini/Smith/Eklund all generate shot attempts at a below average rate of 50 per 60 minutes. Even if you look at actual goals per 60 – only Celebrini/Smith/Toffoli stands out with a silly 4.57 expected goals per 60 that is clearly buoyed by shooting percentage. I’m not telling you to avoid playing Celebrini or the Sharks – but be aware that these guys are also very power play dependent. I’ve got to be honest – I don’t feel great about relying on a Power Play led by John Klingberg.
- Vegas Golden Knights: There’s no way around it – this team had been very average at even strength this year. They have gone from first in the NHL in high-danger chances last year to 17th this year. Barbashev/Eichel/Stone have stayed at about the same numbers – 2.7 xG and shot attempts for in the low 60s. So pretty good numbers – and reasonable guys to rely on in DFS – considering how good Eichel and Stone are on the power play. The rest of the team is a different story. After being so good together last year (3.4 xG/60), Hertl/Dorofeyev have absolutely cratered a full expected goal per 60 while holding their shot attempts steady. The Hertl/Dorofeyev/Marner combination produces a ton of shot attempts (69 per 60), but only 2.5 expected goals. Marner/Stone/Dorofeyev have been even worse in a small sample. Losing two outstanding puck movers in William Karlsson and Alex Pietrangelo has really hurt this team all year. One would think that Mitch Marner – one of the best in the world at that – would’ve helped mitigate the losses from an NHL Hockey-sense. However, that hasn’t been the case thus far. Perhaps Marner gels with his teammates more in the second half and the addition of Rasmus Andersson helps a bit. We’ll see. Overall, I have no idea what to think of this team at even strength going forward.
- Florida Panthers: I’ve touched on it quite bit – but I will here again for those of you not regularly in discord. I have no idea what to expect from this team in the second half. Line combinations, minutes – you name it. Their season is on the brink (I think it’s over) and they are playing two of their best guys – Tkachuk and Verhaege – around 14-16 minutes/game at even strength. They are acting like a team with the white flag half way up. This is a team I will be watching very carefully moving forward. I likely will just want no part of them. I cannot see them continuing to play guys full run in a lost season when Barkov will be back and everyone will be healthy next year.
Application
Ok so how do we apply this? It’s important to note a couple of things:
- Everything is price and ownership dependent. One line or another having been good doesn’t mean you should overpay – via price or ownership – for them in most cases.
- This is meant to stash a few names away to play when they’re lower owned and in a strong spot.
- Don’t necessarily go out of your way to play lines like CHI3 and EDM3. Just know that it’s an option.
Well hopefully this was helpful to some of you. I’ll have another article in the next few days diving into power plays, penalty kills, and positioning
*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com:
https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm