NFL DFS 2023 Week 7 Thoughts and Notes

Welcome to the Paydirt NFL DFS main slate breakdown! This article will go over some of the most important aspects of the NFL DFS main slate. It’ll typically include things like team totals, popular plays, and important stacks. The content of this is mostly geared towards Draftkings but is plenty applicable to Fanduel as well. Likewise, this article goes over the slate based on the range of outcomes models for NFL found here at Paydirt, so if you are interested in the same data we use, grab a subscription today!

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NFL DFS main slate breakdown:

Team stats, rates, and touchdown projections

The Seattle Seahawks (SEA) have the highest team total on the slate at 26.75 while the New England Patriots (NE) have the lowest at 16.25.
The highest passing TD expectation comes from the Kansas City Chiefs (KC) at 1.93, while the highest rushing TD expectation comes from the Baltimore Ravens (BAL) at 1.25.
From a volume perspective, The Los Angeles Chargers (LAC) lead the slate at 42.05 expected dropbacks, while the Atlanta Falcons (ATL) lead in designed rushing attempts at 28.17

The game totals and consequently the team totals on this slate are relatively low, which tells us a couple things. First off it tells us the game environments are generally bad, and secondly it tells us premium stacking options are harder to come by, and thus we have to be more cognizant of the price we pay for stacks. One example: The Chargers stack of Herbert, Allen, and Palmer costs $21,400 on Draftkings while their team total is at 21. Comparatively, the Steelers stack of Pickett/Pickens/Diontae costs $15,500 with a team total of 20.50. That’s nearly a $6k savings on a team stack in a similar game environment.

Team totals don’t tell us everything, that’s why we build projection models, but they can give us a lot of clues as to how much a price we should pay for game environments.

Highest projected ownership

Kenneth Walker is great chalk with SEA having the highest team total and Walker having awesome utilization and TD equity.
I said on the stream yesterday that I didn’t really see any bad chalk, and that’s mostly still the situation, but Musgrave is pretty bad chalk overall if he comes in around 20% owned.
Based on the contest sims, Travis Kelce isn’t a great pay up, and most of the expensive RBs aren’t worth the price, which is why we see a lot of the midrange in this list.

In weeks past we have had a clear avoid in terms of chalk, but today that’s not the case. It’s more situational with these guys. The only piece of chalk I’m actively not interested in is Luke Musgrave, and the rest all have circumstances that I’m okay with following.

My only word of caution here as I mentioned on the stream yesterday is Joshua Palmer should not be used as a one off today. Use him as a game stack or secondary stack if you want to have some but I wouldn’t be playing him in GPPs alone.

Overall slate notes

Main stacks this week are: LAR, BUF, PIT with some secondary interest in LAC, KC, and TB.
Walker is a great play, and if you don’t play him, you should be playing SEA stacks.
I’m back and forth on the DEN/GB game, but if I stack any of it, it’ll be an overstack (QB+2+2) on the DEN side because I think Wilson is kind of playing for his job this week.
I mentioned on stream that you should be paying up at WR and paying down at QB/RB this week, nothing has changed in morning runs on that.
This just feels like a week where you jam in some gross stacks and fill it in with some good chalk and be okay with first or last and nothing else.

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NFL DFS Cash Game Core:

(Finalized after 12pm EST)

This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it’s not a requirement. Generally, you’ll want to focus on the QB, RB, and TEs listed.

RB – Isiah Pacheco
RB – Kenneth Walker
WR – Zay Flowers
WR – Joshua Palmer
TE – Luke Musgrave
FLEX – Jahmyr Gibbs
DST – Chiefs DST

NFL DFS GPP Core:

(Finalized after 10am EST)

This core of players will help you build in priorities to your stacks. Likewise, it’s worth noting that the wide receivers and tight ends listed are meant to be in addition to your chosen stacks.

QB – Matthew Stafford, Kenny Pickett, Russell Wilson, Basically any shitty QB you can think of
RB – Kenneth Walker, Josh Jacobs, Rachaad White, Brian Robinson Jr.
WR – Puka Nacua, Curtis Samuel, Michael Wilson, George Pickens
TE – Cole Kmet, Jonnu Smith, Zach fucking Ertz again god damn it, Logan Thomas
DST – Whoever you want

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