NFL DFS Showdown SZN 2023: Chargers vs. Cowboys

Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night’s NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We run the new Showdown Contest simulations to see what differences we can find in projected ownership and likely exposure. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup’s projection and ownership.

Main Points:

Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen are basically free squares tonight, while Dak is probably the best fade on the slate
People will be using the DAL WR2s (Turpin and Gallup) as captains to fit the studs in the FLEX, so using them in the FLEX without Prescott helps manage dupes
A LAC lean with a 4-2 makes the most sense tonight, but if you think DAL wins this one Tony Pollard is an elite option in a 3-3

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Captain ownership distributions

The highest edge on the slate belongs to Austin Ekeler, who has a positive edge of 7.21%. His projected ownership is around 12% at the slot, but his exposure in winning lineups is a healthy 19%. By far the highest negative leverage on the slate belongs to Justin Herbert. His projected ownership at captain is 22%, while his exposure in winning frames is only around 7%, giving him a negative edge of almost 15%.

FLEX ownership distributions

It’s more of the same for Austin Ekeler in the FLEX, as he offers the highest edge here as well. His positive edge is 23.20% which is close to double his projected ownership in the FLEX. He is followed by Keenan Allen as the second best positive edge offered with a mark of 17.24%. On the other end of the spectrum is Dak Prescott, AKA Southern Kirk Cousins, with a negative edge of 11.75%. His projected ownership is one of the highest on the slate at 57%, making him a strong fade in smaller fields.

Some other notes on optimization exposures and projected ownership:

There’s good evidence that Austin Ekeler is the free square, with a positive edge offered in both captain and FLEX slots.
The DAL players are the ones with the majority of the negative leverage, which mostly speaks to a more condensed (and offensively talented) LAC squad being a priority.
If you are going to play a defense, it should be the Chargers defense, but both are negative leverage here.

Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid

Here is a sample of the lineups in terms of highest ownership from the contest simulations. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

We see a lot of DAL backups WRs in captain, and that is mostly a product of them having low pricetags that allow you to fit the stud main options on both teams. KaVontae Turpin and Michael Gallup are likely to be the highest duplicated captains, followed by Keenan Allen.

The FLEX combo that will be prevalent is: Keenan, Herbert, Ekeler, and Dak. You’ll also see a handful of highly duplicated options with Ceedee Lamb over Ekeler. This makes things relatively easy in terms of managing duplicates as you can get away from Dak Prescott pretty easily based on the negative leverage he carries.

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

This is a good slate that does have some shootout potential, but it feels like showdown slates aren’t actually allowed to be good games. So hopefully this one breaks the mold a bit!

There is a clear priority in the models for Ekeler and Keenan Allen and a clear avoidance of Dak Prescott. This makes for some interesting directions to build from. You still have spend up options on DAL, with Lamb and Pollard, so there’s ways to play with different roster constructions while avoiding the DAL cheap WR2s.

Likely what you should end up doing is playing either Ekeler or Keenan Allen at captain, fading Dak, and utilizing the cheap DAL WR2s in a unique way that doesn’t involve Dak doing well.

As far as plausible gamescripts: If the Chargers get a lead, DAL doesn’t have the gameplan or firepower to keep up with them, so it’s a lot of Ekeler and/or Joshua Kelley. If DAL gets a lead, they’ll use their defense to hound down the LAC offense and run the ball out with Pollard. In both scenarios you get a lot of Ekeler, and Keenan. If DAL is trailing, it’s more CeeDee and the DAL WR2s, if they are leading it’s basically none of the WR2s and mostly Pollard.

I find it hard to think that DAL ends up controlling this game, LAC has been too strong offensively for that, so I am happy to prefer a LAC 4-2 with a DAL WR2 involved in the 2-stack.

Some players that look overvalued:

Dak Prescott (FLEX)
Justin Herbert (CPT)
Cowboys DST

Some players that look undervalued:

Austin Ekeler
Keenan Allen
Kavontae Turpin

Good luck and bink a unique

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