NFL DFS Showdown SZN 2023: Commanders vs. Bears

Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night’s NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We run the new Showdown Contest simulations to see what differences we can find in projected ownership and likely exposure. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup’s projection and ownership.

Main Points:

• The best captains for tonight are either Cole Kmet or Brian Robinson, depending on how you view the gamescript
• In terms of managing dupes, avoiding Jahan Dotson and focusing on gamescript correlations is important
• This slate is mostly about how you view Brian Robinson, so once you have a good idea there build a gamescript around it and run with the wind

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top ownership lineups, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Captain ownership distributions

The highest leverage captain tonight is Cole Kmet, coming in with around a +6% exposure minus projected ownership. That projected ownership is only around 7% while his exposures are around 13%, making him a worthwhile option in all formats. The worst captain option tonight is Khalil Herbert, who comes in at a -7% leverage gained. He projected for more ownership than Kmet at 8% while showing up in just 1.46% of winning lineups.

FLEX ownership distributions

The best option at FLEX tonight is Brian Robinson. His Edge of 34.58% is by far the highest of anyone on this slate, and he makes for the best play overall. His projected ownership in the FLEX is around 40%, which is high, but his exposure in winning lineups is a massive 75%. That’s on par with Justin Fields, but Fields projects for nearly 100% ownership overall with captain and FLEX combined. The worst FLEX option in the contest sims is Jahan Dotson with an 8% exposure rate. His projected ownership is 26%, making him appear to be well overvalued on this slate.

Some other notes on optimization exposures and projected ownership:

• Justin Fields is a free square, there’s just not enough high projected players to justify a fade in the majority of contests.
• There is a lot of chatter about the Commanders DST being a popular option today, but the contest sims suggest that is a terrible idea.
• Contest sims suggest having a clear combination as a core: Fields, Howell, and Robinson.

Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid

Here is a sample of the lineups in terms of highest ownership from the contest simulations. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

Pricing is once again relatively loose for a showdown slate, which is allowing a lot of “good” lineups to be available. This is going to lead to higher than normal duplication counts especially on lineups that optimizers are spitting out. The most popular combinations look like they have one of Howell, Kmet, or Slye at captain with the majority of the high end players in the FLEX.

One combo that is frequent in the lineups with the highest dupe probabilities is: Fields, Howell, Robinson, and Dotson. This combo is pretty easy to avoid if you are getting away from Dotson as the contest sims suggest, but you’ll still have to be thoughtful about your dupe management if you pair the other three.

One of the easier ways to get more unique is looking for exposure to the backup RBs with Roschon Johnson or Antonio Gibson. Specifically with Johnson, his underlying usage is surprisingly strong and lends itself well to a trailing script. If you are playing Brian Robinson, Johnson makes for an awesome game script addition and helps you push for a more unique construction.

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

This showdown is going to come down to nailing the gamescript and making appropriate combinations that maximize outcomes within it. As mentioned with the Robinson/Johnson combo above, you should be thinking about what happens if a team wins a certain way. When we don’t have any clear pricing discrepancies to leverage, the next best way to build leverage is in good correlations.

This slate has a couple pretty strong gamescripts: WAS wins in a ground and pound style, with Robinson being the main factor of victory and the Bears having little ability to move the ball, or CHI continues to find momentum and pushes WAS to air it out with them. The former gamescript can create strong correlations between Robinson/Commanders DST/Roschon Johnson while the latter creates strong correlations between Howell/Fields and the main receiving options.

As you’ll note, both scenarios above have one big decision to make: How are you utilizing Brian Robinson. He makes for a must play in scripts that have WAS controlling the ball and a good fade in games where CHI gets out to a lead.

My personal lean is towards a WAS 4-2 or a 3-3 with a focus on Robinson at either captain or FLEX.

Some players that look overvalued:

• Jahan Dotson
• Commanders DST
• Khalil Herbert (CPT)

Some players that look undervalued:

• Brian Robinson
• Roschon Johnson
• Cole Kmet (CPT)

Good luck and bink a unique

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