NFL DFS Showdown SZN 2023: Dolphins vs. Eagles

Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night’s NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We run the new Showdown Contest simulations to see what differences we can find in projected ownership and likely exposure. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup’s projection and ownership.

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Captain ownership distributions

Devonta Smith is the highest positive leverage at captain on the slate tonight quickly followed by AJ Brown. Both are modest positive numbers at around 4% and 3%, but that’s still important on a showdown slate. The largest negative leverage at captain here is Tua Tagovailoa. He has a -10% diff between his projected ownership and exposure rate at captain. Overall this isn’t the slate you want to play a QB without rushing upside.

FLEX ownership distributions

The largest positive leverage at FLEX tonight is Tyreek Hill, who has an exposure rate of around 67% and a projected ownership at the slot of 45%. He makes for a lock tonight the slate without too much of a thought, but makes for a better FLEX play overall. The largest negative leverage here is once again Tua Tagovailoa. I’ll explain why in the breakdown below, but this makes a lot of sense with how these teams are constructed.

Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid

Here is a sample of the lineups in terms of highest ownership from the contest simulations. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

Jeff Wilson is $200 dollars, so, he’s going to be popular. That’s just fuckin stupid. It does offer a really nice leverage point as it’s hard to expect him to kill you without a touchdown, but the volume will be there and it’s a very bad price.

Overall the highest dupes will include: J.Wilson/Hurts/Hill/Brown and one of Tua/D.Smith. Tua is clearly the odd man out but he’s not enough to differentiate you. Oh, also, I said I would explain why Tua was an easy fade, and it’s just that his ceiling is not as high as Tyreek, Hurts, or AJ Brown. And you are mostly making the choice between Hurts and Tua, which comes out pretty clean and easy in Hurts favor. Anyway, this slate entirely depends on how you handle Jeff Wilson.

If you fade him and Tua, you can pretty much do whatever you want and just run it out there. If you play Jeff Wilson, you have to be understanding of your dupes and play just one of Brown/Smith instead of both. If you play both Wilson and Tua, you are probably fading both Brown and Devonta Smith because of the dupe issues. So, probably fade Jeff Wilson and Tua but man does that feel bad.

The last thing I’ll say is I think there’s a play for an Eagles ground and pound win here. MIA has shown to have issues with a good defensive line and if they get to Tua it’ll be hard for MIA to keep the ball. I think that if you don’t go with the shootout gamescript going with D’Andre Swift captain, Eagles DST in the FLEX, and Devonta Smith against a MIA stack-back.

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

This slate is pretty cut and dry. It’s two offenses with very condensed target trees and a 40% owned min priced player to make a decision on. The easiest way to do things here is just fade Tua and Wilson and slam in all the rest of the main pieces. That way is super volatile, but it’s the easiest way to have win equity.

If you don’t do that, I would say that you absolutely have to fade Tua and you should probably play Mostert as well as Wilson. It’s unlikely people play both of them together but this is a unique slate where there’s a lot of upside in doing it. You are basically paying the price of just one RB to get all the rushing TD equity in a none-split backfield.

Regardless, you should have a focus on Hurts, Devonta, and Hill as your pay ups and make a decision on your value. I lean towards fading Wilson but if you are going to complain about not cashing if it fails don’t do that. Just take your min cash and go.

Some players that look overvalued:

Tua Tagovailoa
Jeff Wilson (probably)

Some players that look undervalued:

Devonta Smith (CPT)
Jaylen Waddle
Eagles DST

Good luck and bink a unique

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