Paydirt NFL DFS Play Action Week 3

Welcome to the NFL DFS Play Action here at Paydirt! This is going to be a weekly article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on the 5 highest-owned players and potential pivots. This article is used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one-off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.

Chalk DFS Plays:

Jerome Ford (26.73%)
Justin Jefferson (25.17%)
Keenan Allen (19.32%)
Kenneth Walker III (17.09%)
Nico Collins (16.98%)

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top ownership lineups, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Jerome Ford

Jerome Ford is expected to be the highest owned player on the slate after a gruesome injury ended Nick Chubb’s season. Despite there being several pivot options, none of them are at the RB position. Therefore, if going with a cheap RB construction you’ll likely want to just eat the chalk. However, if it is the Flex spot you can get different by playing similarly priced receivers.

Justin Jefferson

Jefferson stands alone this week. Given the constraints of within +/- $300 salary and +/- 3 points of median projection, there is no pivot to Jefferson. That said, Tyreek Hill is within a point of median projection of meeting the pivot requirements so he would be the option.

Keenan Allen

Keenan Allen sits atop his price range, but unlike Jefferson there are some viable pivots. Amon-Ra and CeeDee Lamb have similar median projections and Top Finish% to Allen at a fraction of the ownership. Bijan Robinson can also be considered but has a lower ceiling.

Kenneth Walker III

Kenneth Walker looks like pretty bad chalk this week. James Cook and James Conner look like similar plays with significantly less ownership. Furthermore, Raheem Mostert rates as the clear top play in this range and psition

Nico Collins

Nico Collins doesn’t necessarily rate poorly, however, there are several guys with better projections. Terry McLaurin, Jordan Addison, Zay Flowers, and Michael Thomas not only project higher than Nico, but have higher ceilings and Top Finish% as well.

DFS Play Action: Final Thoughts

Jerome Ford and Keenan Allen are more roster dependent plays. If your build calls for a cheap RB you should probably just play Ford. However, if it’s a cheap Flex option there are pivots available. Similarly, Keenan Allen can be plugged in to lower-owned roster builds but pivot if you’re playing other high-owned players. Lastly, Jordan Addison can give you some 2 for 1 differentiation. Not only is Addison a pivot off of Nico Collins, but he’s also direct leverage off of Justin Jefferson.

Good luck and let’s bake some bread!

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