Paydirt NFL DFS Play Action Week 5

Welcome to the NFL DFS Play Action here at Paydirt! This is going to be a weekly article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on the 5 highest-owned players and potential pivots. This article is used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one-off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.

Chalk DFS Plays:

• Tyreek Hill (20.95%)
• Ja’Marr Chase (20.53%)
• D’Andre Swift (19.33%)
• Bijan Robinson (18.77%)
• De’Von Achane (18.50%)

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top ownership lineups, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Tyreek Hill

Tyreek Hill is expected to be the highest owned player on the slate at 20.95% ownership. There is only one other player in the $9k range and that is Justin Jefferson. This pivot run was using +/- $300 in salary so Jefferson just missed at $9.4k compared to Hill at $9k. However, Jefferson is absolutely the pivot here with a comparable ceiling, lower ownership, and higher median projection.

Ja’Marr Chase

Unlike Hill who had a pivot just outside the salary constraints of the pivot finder, Chase legitimately has no pivots in his salary range. This doesn’t mean you should consider Chase a lock. Rather, it indicates that if your construction calls for a WR/FLEX in this price range Chase is the strongest option.

D’Andre Swift

D’Andre Swift stands out with a solid median projection of 15.9. Yet, there’s value in diversifying within the RB role. Raheem Mostert and James Conner, lesser-owned at 7.83% and 10.28% respectively, offer solid median projections of 14.78 and 14.46. Additionally, in the FLEX spot Garret Wilson and Jerry Jeudy are two higher-upside options evidenced by their higher ceiling and Top Finish%.

Bijan Robinson

Bijan Robinson will be highly owned, but with a ceiling of 23.5875, there’s a clear understanding of why many are flocking to him. However, Derrick Henry is priced attractively at 7500. With a median projection of 15.25 and ownership of 12.48%, he’s a strong pivot in GPPs. Furthermore, his ceiling of 20.27, while not the highest, signifies there is still upside.

De’Von Achane

De’Von Achane looks like the weakest of the chalk options considering his median projection , ceiling, and Top Finish% relative to his ownership. Raheem Mostert offeres direct leverage, while James Connor is another lower-owned pivot at the RB position. In the FLEX spot, Garrett Wilson, Jerry Jeudy, and Michael Pittman Jr. are additional pivots to consider.

DFS Play Action: Final Thoughts

Tyreek Hill and Ja’Marr Chase are the strongest chalk options due to the lack of viable pivots at both their price range and position. Conversely, D’Andre Swift and Bijan Robinson are more roster-dependent. They make sense in low-owned builds, but if playing other popular options they are spots to get different at. Lastly, De’Von Achane looks like bad chalk given his projections and one of his pivots, Raheem Mostert offers direct leverage.

Good luck and let’s bake some bread!

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